Sooner or later, every company's growth prospects hit a wall. Companies that grow rapidly have an even tougher time, as the corporate culture is built around rapid expansion and growingas quickly as possible. Technology firms, in particular, face intense competition and short product-development cycles, making it easier for rivals to sell products that build upon another's development success.
But when growth investors dump the stock of a company that is no longer growing at a breakneck pace, value investors should take note — big profits could be on the horizon…
Computer firm Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) has gone through these growing pains in the past few years. It revolutionized the personal computer industry by focusing on build-to-order computers and lean, just-in-time inventory controls that kept costs low. Consumers fell in love with the products, as did businesses. Michael Dell was so confident in the company he built from his dorm room at the University of Texas in Austin, Texas, that he left as CEO in 2004 to pursue other interests.
Dell's retirement didn't last long. Dell's market had become saturated with computers, while rivals including Acer and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) copied its direct model and found other efficiencies to lower costs and better compete with the market leader. HP soon took back its leadership position in computers. Three years later, Michael Dell returned to lead the company through a painful transition.
As the chart below illustrates, a down
But lately there are tangible signs that Dell is finally succeeding in its turnaround. The company reported full year 2010 results a couple of weeks ago, and the its transformation is telling. Desktop PCs only accounted for 13% of sales, while laptops and related mobility devices represented only 14% of sales, meaning that computers now represent just over a quarter of Dell's business, compared with 100% prior to the diversification strategy.
The acquisition of IT services firm Perot Systems in late 2009 has pushed service revenue to 36% of sales. Consulting on information technology projects and other service-related work is very lucrative and carries highmargins. Software is also highly profitable and now accounts for 8% of sales. Server and networking now makes up 26% of sales. Storage products make up only 5% of sales, but Dell is confident it will help boost growth as the popularity of cloud computing catches on. Archrival HP is also pushing into cloud computing, as are others in the tech industry.
Most of these new businesses are growing briskly. Last year, software grew 18% while services and storage grew 12%. Computers and laptops are also seeing a recovery as the economy improves, and although Dell is not focusing on these segments going forward, they are bringing in lots of cash — nearly billion in based off 2010 results.
The company plans to grow its existing businesses and boost internal growth with acquisitions. Previously, Dell could rely on organic growth, but it must now also acquire smaller companies in order to gain market share. I mentioned the purchase of Perot Systems, but more recently Dell announced the acquisition of SecureWorks, a software-as-a-service (SaaS) provider in the cloud-computing world. Recently, Dell also announced deals to buy Insite One and Compellent, a health care cloud-computing firm and storage platform software provider, respectively.
The acquisitions should give a pretty clear picture of Dell's focus going forward, which is to diversify into fast growing and profitable spaces in the tech industry to supplement its computer businesses. The latest financial figures serve to prove its strategy is working. For the full year of 2010, total sales grew 16% to .5 billion, while profits shot ahead 85% to .35 per diluted share. For the coming year, analysts projectof .69 a share, or year-over-year growth of about 25%.
Cash generation also remains strong. For 2010,
Action to Take —> Dell has successfully transitioned from computers into a technology firm with a diversified and growing book of business. Continued growth could mean big gains for shareholders.
Dell's stock has started to move lately and is nearly 40% above its lows in the past year. But it could easily move up even more as investors become more comfortable with the conclusion that it has returned to a period of steady growth. The stock's valuation is also still very reasonable: the forward P/E is less than 9, as is the trailing free cash flow multiple.
I estimate a conservative multiple of 13 off 2012 earnings expectations of .77 a share. This suggests a stock price of , more than 50% above current levels.
– Ryan Fuhrmann
This article originally appeared on StreetAuthority
Author: Ryan Fuhrmann
Why This Well-Known Tech Stock Could Rally Another 50%
The auto-parts sector has been one of the brightest spots in retail the past year, but strong February sales figures from auto makers may signal an end to the good times.
Citigroup has come under attack for failing to disclose regulatory criticism of the bank’s valuation of troubled securities during the financial crisis
- Mildly restrictive policy is appropriate.
- Inflation in the year ahead to be consistent with target.
- High AUD is damping inflation.
- Sees a fall back in farm prices later in the year.
- Sees further growth in employment.
- Employment is likely growing at a slower pace.
- Sees wages growing at rates seen prior to downturn.
- Asset values are little changed over recent months.
- Overall credit growth remains quite subdued.
- Runup in household leverage abated.
Moves by international community to freeze assets has become a key component of the growing pressure on Colonel Gaddafi
China Feb HSBC Manufacturing PMI moves up to 51.7 vs 51.50
High-Risk Warning Forex, Futures, and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risks. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. You must be aware of the risks of investing in forex, futures, …
TOKYO, March 1 (Reuters) – The British pound rose to itshighest level in four months against a broadly weaker dollar onTuesday, helped by expectations of Bank of England rate hikes andconcerns high oil …
CHICAGO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Link to Fitch Ratings’ Report: 0 per Barrel Crude Oil: Credit Implications across the Corporate Sectorhttp://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=515225 The ongoing political unrest across the Middle East and North Africa and the threat of further contagion impacting major oil producing states has increased the probability of a significant crude spike scenario, according to Fitch Ratings. Political unrest, More >
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
For more information, read our latest forex news.
In Washington, before lobbyists try hard to destroy something, they
first spread a great deal of disinformation about it. Thus the “End
Users’ Coalition” (a front for the derivatives dealers) promotes its lobbying points as fake research. And “fiscal conservatives” attempt to distract from the fact
that our largest banks brought us to the brink of budget disaster –
this is their preparation for demolishing all vestiges of financial